Research Archive — every verdict, including our kills
Systematic research decides what AlphaDash may claim. Every study here follows the same template — question, sample, period, costs, verdict — and negative results are published permanently alongside the survivors. Currently: 2 validated information claims, 4 kills, and our data limitations, documented. If a finding is not on this page, we do not claim it.
| Verdict | Finding | Area |
|---|---|---|
| PASS | Day-0 Watchlist: Next-Day Runner Capture (Information Claim) Does the nightly Day-0 top-20 ranking contain next-day large movers at above the universe base rate? | Momentum / Screening |
| PASS | Momentum Ranking Model: Out-of-Sample Validation (MOM-E1) Can a model trained only on decision-time information rank which small caps will move unusually large the next day? | Momentum / Ranking |
| KILL | Historical Analog Retrieval Added No Information (NX-A1) Does retrieving "similar historical market situations" add predictive information over a simple baseline? | Context / Nexus |
| KILL | V19 Live Alert Family: No Edge, Killed (Forward Sample) Did the V19 generation of live bracket alerts show a tradable edge in its forward sample? | Momentum / Live Alerts |
| KILL | SPY/Index Directional Option Signals: Indistinguishable From Placebo Do our directional 0DTE/3DTE option signals on index products outperform a placebo signal? | Options |
| KILL | Crypto Candidate E2: Clean Kill Through the Full Pipeline Did the first Scout-originated crypto candidate survive preregistered validation? | Crypto |
| LIMITATION | Survivorship in Historical Small-Cap Data: A Permanent, Measured Limitation Does our historical data source cover delisted small caps — and if not, how badly? | Data Integrity |
Why publish kills?
Because an intelligence system you can trust must be able to say no edge in public. Most ideas die under preregistered evaluation — out-of-sample data, realistic costs, placebo controls. Publishing those funerals is what separates evidence from marketing, and it is why the surviving claims on this site mean something. Our methodology explains the measurement rules behind every entry.
Findings describe information claims and research verdicts, not trading advice. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes.