KILL  Options

SPY/Index Directional Option Signals: Indistinguishable From Placebo

Do our directional 0DTE/3DTE option signals on index products outperform a placebo signal?

We evaluated the directional option-signal class (calls/puts on index products) against placebo controls — random signals with matched timing structure.

Result: killed. Across 813 signals the class performed approximately like placebo. Follow-up backtests across multiple intraday trend-following formulations (multi-timeframe trend flips, micro-trend reversals, opening-range breakouts with volume and VWAP filters) reached the same verdict from independent angles: no deployable directional edge, and premium-based tight stops mechanically destroy expectancy.

What this means: the Options Radar is presented as a context monitor — strikes, implied volatility, expected move — and not as a validated signal edge, because our own evidence says it is not one.

What this does NOT mean: that every options approach is dead — only that this class, measured honestly, is. Anything future must pass the same gates before a single public claim is made.

← All findings · How we measure

This page describes a research verdict under our published methodology. It is not trading advice, and information claims are not profitability claims. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes.