PASS  Momentum / Screening

Day-0 Watchlist: Next-Day Runner Capture (Information Claim)

Does the nightly Day-0 top-20 ranking contain next-day large movers at above the universe base rate?

The nightly Day-0 watchlist ranks the wide small-cap universe and publishes its top 20. We measured, forward and out-of-sample, whether next-day large movers (stocks whose intraday high reached +20% or more) appeared in that list more often than chance.

Result: the published top-20 captured next-day +20% runners at a 21.1% rate versus a 2.05% universe base rate — roughly a 10× lift — averaging 4.12 hits per day over 17 independent days, with a confidence interval of [+14.4pp, +24.2pp] over base.

What this means: the ranking is validated as information — a screening layer that concentrates attention on the right names at a rate far above chance.

What this does NOT mean: it is not a validated entry strategy. Much of the move prices in at the open; we do not track this list as trading performance and we do not publish per-pick probabilities. The claim is about where large moves subsequently appeared — not about profits anyone made.

← All findings · How we measure

This page describes a research verdict under our published methodology. It is not trading advice, and information claims are not profitability claims. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes.